In this article, I will discuss the difference between players who will pitch to start an inning, and the players who will pitch when there are runners on base, based upon quality of contact.

Thanks to the people at Statcast, there is a measure for this, called expected weighted on base average(xwOBA).

xwOBA measures the wOBA of a given player, along with their exit velocity and launch angle, giving more points to players who make outs, but hit the ball hard and at an optimal launch angle.

The pitching side of xwOBA is how well the pitcher prevents solid contact, along with their opponent’s wOBA.

I looked at the Cards’ pitching staff in terms of xwOBA, and how might each pitcher be useful in a given situation.

I looked at three factors, xwOBA with nobody on, xwOBA with runners on base/RISP, and situational xwOBA, where the tying or go-ahead run is at the plate or on the bases.

The data, from Baseball Savant, is what I measured over the previous 2 seasons(a minimum of 50 results).

As well as that, I only looked at pitchers who are currently on the 40-man roster, and added Juan Nicasio and Wade Davis(since I believe the Cards should sign the two in my other article).

I then took the difference of the xwOBA of nobody on from runners on base, and the difference of the xwOBA of runners on base from situational xwOBA to further determine a separation between the factors, as well as an average of the three.

The results:

Looking at this set of data, I then again classify these pitchers in groups based upon their quality of contact.

First, I grouped pitchers in a class called “Openers”, or pitchers who could start the game(thus xwOBA with no runners on base comes into play), or pitchers who are effective with no runners on base.

The first group(Classified by xwOBA with nobody on base)

Brett Cecil- .271 xwOBA

John Brebbia- .292 xwOBA(though he could be effective late in the game as well)

John Gant- .311 xwOBA(effective late in game as well)

Luke Weaver- .315 xwOBA(also could be effective late in game as well)

Jack Flaherty- .325 xwOBA

All would be effective options for “The Opener” based upon quality of contact with no runners on base.

The second group are players who would be effective at getting the Cards out of a jam early in the game (1st through 6th innings).

The second group(classified with runners on base/RISP)

Tyler Lyons- .264 xwOBA

Sam Tuivailala- .275 xwOBA

Michael Wacha- .310 xwOBA(also a third group candidate)

Adam Wainwright- .310 xwOBA

The players can handle getting out of a jam early in the game, as well as starting the next inning.

The third and final group are pitchers who can be thrown in any situation at any time, and will throw the most innings on the team(top-tier pitchers based upon xwOBA).

League average xwOBA is .314, and these pitchers exceed that number remarkably.

The third group(denoted by average xwOBA),

Alex Reyes- .219 xwOBA

Wade Davis- .264 xwOBA

Juan Nicasio- .282 xwOBA

Matt Bowman- .285 xwOBA

Carlos Martinez- .286 xwOBA

The Cardinals, with a few additions, have the staff to implement this approach.

However, improving the defense is another task that needs to be addressed so these pitchers can attain more likely success.

The post Determining Cards’ Pitching Attack By Quality of Contact appeared first on KRUI Radio.

The defending National Champions in the Major Baseball League manage to survive. For now. The mounting of a comeback has begun in Chicago. In a low scoring match between the Chicago Cubs and the LA Dodgers, the Cubs would top their adversaries 3-2 in Wrigley Field.

This particular addition to the series would face off Jake Arrieta and Alex Wood. Unlike other faceoffs between the Dodgers and Cubs, this matchup would only allow runs scored off home runs. In similar fashion to Game 3, the Cubs would strike first on a second inning home run from Wilson Contreras. A 491 foot bomb into left field.

Contrasting the previous outing, Chicago would not merely score once this inning. The 437 foot belt into left by Javier Baez would further the gap. This hit is very significant for the second baseman. The end of a 0 for 20 streak slayed the demons which haunted Baez for longer than any Cubs fan would enjoy.

Despite this, the Dodgers would respond the next inning. Another homer, this one from first baseman Cody Bellinger. The score would stay at a 2-1 standstill until the fifth inning following the 378 foot blast.

Off of another pitch by Wood, Baez would once again swing for the fences. And succeed. A 380 foot solo shot into left field put the Dodgers into a 3-1 hole. In spite of their best attempts, LA would stay in the hole. An eighth inning home run by Justin Turner tightens the gap to a single run once more. Nonetheless, this would be the last run scored by either side.

The bullpens for both Los Angeles and Chicago performed well in Game 4 with both sides totaling more than 10 strikeouts a piece. The Cubs would total 12 strikeouts and the Dodgers, 11. The Dodgers would end up pulling 6 members of the bullpen onto to mound in opposition to Chicago bringing only Arrieta, Brian Duensing, and Wade Davis to close.

In the top of the ninth, Game 4 ends in dramatic fashion with a Bellinger hit turning into a Chicago double play. The Cubs stave off elimination to earn another fight. Game 5 between the Cubs and Dodgers will occur Thursday night at Wrigley Field once again. Clayton Kershaw will be on the mound for the Dodgers facing Chicago’s Jose Quintana with the first pitch at 7:08 pm CST on TBS.

The post Cubbie Comeback Continues into Game 5 appeared first on KRUI Radio.

Notable Additions: Chris Young SP, Alex Rios OF, Kris Medlen SP, Kendrys Morales 1B/DH, Edinson Volquez SP

Notable Losses: Billy Butler DH, James Shields SP, Nori Aoki OF

The loss of James Shields jumps out as the most impactful. Shields was the ace of the Royals and has been the most durable pitcher in the game over the past eight years. Shields has thrown 200+ innings in each of the last eight seasons. The Royals will miss the reliability of James Shields at the top of the rotation. The losses of Billy Butler and Nori Aoki are impactful but neither player is irreplaceable.

The Royals did a good job filling the roles of the lost players. Alex Rios will now take over in right field. Rios brings veteran leadership and a solid right-handed bat to the lineup. Fans can expect a .280 batting average and a decent glove out in right. Kendrys Morales will be the new DH for the Royals, replacing Billy Butler. Morales is a switch hitter who still has some pop left in his bat. He will fit well in the middle of the lineup and should be able to drive in some runs in 2015. The Royals decided to bring in two pitchers to fill the shoes of James Shields. Edinson Volquez will be the guy that most people notice in the rotation. He had one of the best seasons of his career in 2014 with the Pirates. He threw in 192.2 innings while finishing with a 3.04 ERA. I expect him to digress a little due to the fact that he now finds himself pitching in the American League. He’ll now have to face a designated hitter each night and will have to make the needed adjustments. The Royals also added Kris Medlen to the pitching staff. He is still rehabbing back from arm surgery but should be able to find his way onto the field in 2015. Medlen is another case of a low risk, high reward signing. He currently holds a 2.95 career ERA.

The Royals should be ready to compete again in 2015. I like the dynamic of the offense and the fact that anyone could be the player to step up on any given night. They don’t have a go-to guy right now and it looks like they will keep it that way. They play small ball as a team and find ways to win games. Lorenzo Cain stepped up in a big way in 2014. He was an outstanding defender throughout the entire season and finally found his swing. He finished with a .301 batting average and swiped 28 bases. He has the ability to make big plays anywhere on the field.

The Royals were dominant last season largely because of their bullpen. They had three guys who could shut the door in the seventh, eighth, and ninth. Kelvin Herrera, Wade Davis, and Greg Holland are all returning in 2015. All three pitchers held ERA’s of 1.44 or less in 2014. Those are video game numbers. Wade Davis only allowed 8 runs all season, Herrera allowed 11, and Holland 10. If these guys can even come close to repeating what they did in 2014, the Royals will be a major threat.

Breakout Player: Brandon Finnegan P

Brandon Finnegan was quite a story last October. He made seven appearances in the 2014 post season at the age of twenty-one. He pitched in both the NCAA College World Series and the MLB World Series in the same year! He allowed just one run through seven innings last October. He also struck out ten batters. Finnegan defied all logic and showed that as a twenty-one year old he was poised enough to throw in the post season. He will start in the bullpen this season and try to work his way into the starting rotation. If healthy I expect:

79-85 IP, 3.44 ERA, 92 SO

Game Changer: Yordano Ventura SP

The twenty-three year old righty pitched his first full season in the MLB last season. Ventura finished with a 3.20 ERA through 183 innings. He has a dominating fastball that reaches triple digits. He will move into the number one spot due to the loss of James Shields. The offense and bullpen are good enough to win games if the starters can limit damage through the first six innings. If Ventura can repeat what he did last season, the team will be in a very good position.

The Royals will be back and better than ever in 2015. They will continue playing small ball and manufacture runs. The bullpen will be one of the most reliable in the entire league. The starting rotation should be able to hold their own and give six solid innings each night. Expect the Royals to be fierce competitors in 2015. They’ll be on the hunt for what they didn’t get last time.

Make sure to check back in on March 31st for my complete standing predictions along with a few other fun pieces of news. Until then, you will be able to find a new preview of an individual team from March 1st through the 30th here at KRUI.FM.

The post Kansas City Royals 2015 Preview Edition #10 appeared first on KRUI Radio.