Unless you’re an absolute die-hard fan of baseball, you probably haven’t heard the name Matt Chapman. After all, it would seem unlikely that a third baseman with a .762 OPS and .231 batting average on the last place Oakland Athletics would deserve any serious recognition. But Chapman is already establishing himself as one of baseball brightest young defensive players, and a cornerstone for a rebuilding A’s franchise to build around.

Before I dive into the statistical reasons for why Chapman is already a better defensive third baseman than show-stoppers like Nolan Arenado, Manny Machado and Anthony Rendon, here are a couple plays showing off his ridiculous arm strength and top-tier baseball instincts.

Here’s Chapman doubling off Trey Mancini at first on a line drive to third base. The arm strength needed to fire a baseball at the speed necessary to get a runner who was less than a third of the way from first to second, and was already diving back to the back, is rather insane, and Chapman made it look routine.

Here’s another example of Chapman’s ridiculous arm strength. Perhaps Nelson Cruz could have beat out that ball if he was running at full speed, but Chapman’s throw still beat him by several steps despite being more than the length of the diamond away and off of his back foot.

Chapman was playing closer to the hole at shortstop here, and plays the ball perfectly, keeping his balance and making a perfect throw to second as he spins to start a double play that left the bases loaded.

It’s clear that Chapman possesses a really strong arm and gets clear reads on the ball on every play. His defensive abilities and arm strength have been lauded for a while – in 2014, his draft year (when he was selected 25th overall by Oakland), Baseball America wrote that “Chapman’s plus-plus is a major asset at the hot corner, where he has the actions and instincts to be an above-average defender.” BA also noted that Chapman touched 98 MPH as a pitcher for the USA National Collegiate Baseball Team in 2013, although he did not pitch in college for Cal State Fullerton. Coming into the 2017 season, Chapman was ranked by Baseball America as the 94th best prospect in baseball, and by Baseball Prospectus as the 100th best prospect in baseball, mostly due to his stellar defensive abilities.

Chapman was called up to the majors on June 15, making his debut against the New York Yankees in Oakland. So far this season (as of games through September 4th), Chapman has played 518 innings in the field, and does not qualify for the batting title, with only 230 plate appearances. The advanced defensive statistics that follow are defined by Fangraphs:

Ultimate Zone Rating (UZR): puts a run value to defense, attempting to quantify how many runs a player saved or gave up through their fielding prowess (or lack thereof).

Defensive Runs Above Average (Def): measures a player’s defensive value relative to league average. Def is the combination of two important factors of defensive performance: value relative to positional average (fielding runs) and positional value relative to other positions (positional adjustment).

Defensive Runs Saved (DRS): rates individual players as above or below average on defense. Captures a player’s total defensive value.

Here are Chapman’s numbers in those stats, with his rank among MLB third baseman in parentheses (no minimum plate appearances):

UZR: 6.9 (3rd)
Def: 7.8 (3rd)
DRS: 17 (T-2nd)

These numbers come in only 59 games – if those numbers are extrapolated to what would be expected over the span of double his current pace (118 games – less than the 137 that the A’s have played this season), he would lead all three categories by a significant margin. Chapman’s Wins Above Replacement (WAR) sits at 2.6 on Baseball-Reference and 1.7 on Fangraphs despite his fairly anemic offensive numbers (his .296 on-base percentage is 36th among the 43 third baseman with at least 200 plate appearances). He ranks ninth among all AL defensive players in Baseball-Reference’s Defensive WAR numbers, at 1.9.

A decade ago, Chapman may not even have been seeing the field regularly. Thanks to the introduction of these more advanced statistics, we can see that Chapman has been arguably the most valuable defensive player in the league in the 2 and 1/2 months since he was called up to the majors. But his traditional, and outdated, fielding stats leave much to be desired. He has nine errors and a .956 fielding percentage, numbers that rank towards the middle of the pack of third baseman with at least 500 innings in the field. In the past, managers and general managers would scoff at the idea of playing a third baseman everyday with a fielding percentage at .956, but the game is evolving, and Chapman’s defense can now be appreciated for how stellar it is. He may not be a household name yet, but if he keeps this stellar level of defensive play up, we can expect to see Chapman’s name mentioned above the likes of Arenado and Machado for the title of Best Defensive Third Baseman.

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Many stars from the MLB are committing to their respective countries or heritages, as this may be the most profiled World Baseball Classic to date. Some stars include Manny Machado of the Baltimore Orioles (Dominican Republic), Jose Altuve of the Houston Astros (Venezuela), Adrian Gonzalez of the Los Angeles Dodgers (Mexico), and Nolan Arenado of the Colorado Rockies (USA).

While most are excited that baseball is back and would rather wait for the MLB season to start, hear me out. The World Baseball Classic is a great opportunity to see a lot of great things. The WBC provides us with the opportunity to enjoy talent from other countries who do not play in Major League Baseball. In the past we have seen current MLB stars like Masahiro Tanaka, Jose Abreu, Yoenis Cespedes, and Kenley Jansen play in the WBC before they were signed to big league contracts. Fun fact about Los Angeles Dodgers closer Kenley Jansen, who is arguably the best closer in baseball right now, played catcher for the Netherlands in the 2006 WBC. Here is a GIF of Jansen throwing out Ryan Braun from his knees.

Another opportunity that the WBC presents is competitive baseball in March. In the month of March, spring training games are just merely for the players prepping themselves for the season. Most of the game’s best players are out of the game by the fifth inning. With the WBC, the game’s premier players are in game action for nine innings. More star studded players as mentioned previously are going to play in the Classic.

Lastly, the WBC has an incredible fan atmosphere. Like the Soccer World Cup, the fans of international teams are loud, rowdy, excited, and prideful for their team. A sense of nationalistic pride comes together in one tournament, on one diamond, in between the foul lines, 60 feet 6 inches away with the winner-take-all in LA.

The first game for Team USA is on Friday, March 10 at 11 AM against Colombia, while the first official game of the WBC is between Israel and South Korea, which begins Monday, March 6 at 4 AM CT in Seoul, South Korea.

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Notable Additions: Everth Cabrera SS, Wesley Wright RP, Travis Snider OF

Notable Losses: Nelson Cruz OF/DH, Nick Markakis RF, Nick Hundley C, Andrew Miller RP

Baltimore had strong pitching as a whole last season. Their pitchers ranked in the top ten finishing with a collective 3.43 ERA. They will miss the reliability of Andrew Miller. He finished with 1.35 ERA and a 15.3 SO9 rate. Miller was effective on both righties and lefties. The Orioles brought in Wesley Wright to fill the lefty role in the bullpen. Wright had a solid year with the Chicago Cubs in 2014. He finished with a 3.17 ERA through 48.1 innings of work. He is no Andrew Miller, but he might be able to offer some relief. The starting rotation is really nothing to get excited about.

Adam Jones has been one of the most consistent center fielders in the game the past three seasons. He was nothing short of impressive last year finishing with a .281 batting average and  29 home runs. He also drove in 96 runs. Jones has raw power and should hit 30+ long balls in 2015. The loss of Nick Markakis will hurt the Orioles more than expected. He was an above average defender and brought power to the lineup from the left side. He will be replaced by Travis Snider who had his best season in 2014. Snider only got 322 at bats but still managed to hit 13 long balls and drive in 38 runs. He finished with a .264 batting average and a .438 slugging percentage. He will enjoy getting a full season of work and should capitalize on the opportunity. Chris Davis will be looking to rebound in 2015. He struggled making contact which caused his power to dwindle. He just wasn’t “Crush” Davis but rather Chris. In 2013, Chris Davis hit 53 home runs while driving in 138 runs. He held a .286 batting average to go along with his .634 slugging percentage. He digressed tremendously in 2014 finishing with just 26 home runs and 72 RBI’s. His ability to make consistent contact dwindled as he finished with a .196 batting average and a .404 slugging percentage. The Orioles would be satisfied if Davis could find a middle ground between the 2013 and 2014 seasons. They have plenty of firepower, but they would be nearly unstoppable if Davis hits 40+ long balls.

Injury limited Manny Machado to just 82 games in 2014. He finished with a .278 batting average and 12 home runs. His defense is unquestionably the best of all third basemen. Machado led the league with 52 doubles in 2013 and will be looking to do so again. His slugging percentage has always been above .430 and it’s only going to rise. Machado is a true superstar in the makings. Expect big things from him in 2015.

Breakout Player: Kevin Gausman SP

Gausman is one of the most exciting pitchers to watch. He has an overbearing fastball that averages 95.3 MPH. He finished the 2014 season with a 3.57 ERA through 113.1 innings. He needs to improve on his control as he held a 3.0 BB9 rate last season. This will be the year that everyone learn Kevin Gausman’s name. He will flourish as a full time starter and he has plenty of offense to back him up. If healthy I expect:

182.1 IP, 3.09 ERA, 174 SO

Game Changer: Matt Wieters C

Wieters played in just 26 games in 2014. Despite his absence, the Orioles still made a deep postseason run. Before his injury, Wieters had finished with over 20 home runs in each of his last four seasons. He holds a career slugging percentage of .423 and a .257 batting average. If the Orioles get Wieters back they will have the ability to make the postseason with ease.

J.J. Hardy was a close to being the game changer. Hardy played in 141 games in 2014 but did so with an ailing back. He never seemed to be himself and finished with just 9 home runs. He hit over 20 home runs in each of the previous three seasons. Hardy provides offense from the shortstop position and should rebound in 2015.

The Orioles will be strong once again in 2015. They have a solid pitching rotation with offensive firepower to lead the way. Expect them to contend for more than just the AL East title in 2015.

Make sure to check back in on March 31st for my complete standing predictions along with a few other fun pieces of news. Until then, you will be able to find a new preview of an individual team from March 1st through the 30th here at KRUI.FM.

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