Michigan State is almost there.  Where is there?  What is the there?  The team in already elite by conference standards.  They just have to take that last mile there.

There is national recognition.  There is the Rose Bowl or ascending to the BCS level.  There is an outright Big Ten championship.  If they want to get there, they are so, so close.

Head coach Mark Dantonio has put Michigan State into contention to get there.  If the 2011 Spartans were a car, Dantonio was its mechanic and driver.  His steel baby at five years in the making has turned into a consistent winner in the conference.  Eventually, the chips will fall his way completely because his machine will have every part it needs to get there.

Consider the signs of progress.  Win on the road?  Done.  Wins at Ohio State and Iowa in 2011, stadiums that have been very rough on Sparty in the past, pushed the team down the road.

Establish a standout defense?  Yes, clearly.  The Spartans ranked in the top twelve nationally in four defensive categories.

Win your division?  Key wins over Michigan, Northwestern, and Iowa solidified a Legends division championship.

Win a bowl game for the first time under Dantonio at Michigan State?  What a doozy as the Spartans came back from a sizable deficit to beat Georgia in the Outback Bowl, 33-30 in three overtimes.

So how to get through that last mile?  Get to the Big Ten championship game (again) and win it.  Last year, in the inaugural championship game, Michigan State battled Wisconsin in one of the best conference games of the year.

Down 21-7, Dantonio’s steel baby roared to a 29-21 lead off a 22-0 run, including a fake extra point play for a 2-point conversion.  Wide receivers Keshawn Martin and B.J. Cunningham caught everything down the middle.

In the end, though, it wasn’t enough.  Wisconsin, the upperclass of the Big Ten, found its running lanes and took the championship, 42-39.  The 2012 Dantonio steel baby still has its chops, though.  Perhaps this year it’s ready to drain its tank into Pasadena.

KEY ADDITIONS: Junior wide receiver Bennie Fowler has been in the MSU program long enough to be considered an established upperclassman.  He qualifies as a key addition because of his absence in 2011.  Fowler only played in two games last season because of recurring foot injuries.  He caught two passes for 20 yards against Minnesota.

As a freshman in 2010, the 6’2” Michigan native showed promise while catching 14 passes for 175 yards and a touchdown.  He also rushed on reverses seven times, scoring once and tallying 62 yards with a long dash of 22 yards.  New Spartan quarterback Andrew Maxwell will rely on Fowler considering the current void in pass-catching experience (see soft criticisms below).

KEY LOSSES: Jerely Worthy became one of the most unstoppable, fluid man-whales to play defensive tackle in the Big Ten in the past five years.  His 2011 statistics won’t make you gasp (31 total tackles, 10.5 tackles for loss, 3.5 sacks), but consider that when he got his man, he was a crushing force.  Teams often ran the ball away from Worthy and put a double-team on the 300 pounder, creating opportunities for other defenders.

Worthy also had a swim move that would make Ryan Lochte smile.  Iowa fans will remember Worthy for being an Oscar-worthy flopper, as well as a great disruptor.  Georgia fans will remember him for (literally!) single-handedly ending the 2012 Outback Bowl with a blocked field goal in the third overtime, giving East Lansing the win.  Worthy skipped his senior year and is now bolstering Green Bay’s defensive line.

Also of note: Fan favorite quarterback Kirk Cousins and all-time leading pass catcher B.J. Cunningham are gone, as well as magical wide receiver Keith Nichol (Hail Mary deflection against Wisconsin, supreme lateral for touchdown in Big Ten title game), second-leading receiver Keshawn Martin, and dependable tight end Brian Linthicum.  Whoa nelly.

WHO WILL DELIVER IN 2012: The offensive line and the defense.  Incoming junior quarterback Andrew Maxwell needs time to throw to a batch of (mostly) new wide outs.  Convenient it is that he has four returning offensive linemen, including tackles Dan France and Fou Fonoti.  Experienced center Travis Jackson will give Maxwell and offensive coordinator Dan Roushar peace of mind.

This defense will be, once again, a real humdinger.  Defensive coordinator Pat Narduzzi turned down the Akron Zips head coaching job to stay at Michigan State.  With eight returning starters, the Spartan defense will rank as one of the conference’s best.  Last season, Michigan State ranked first in total defense and rushing defense in the conference as well as third in scoring (18.4 points per game allowed) and pass defense.

Note that they ranked in the top-twelve nationally in those four defensive categories.  The team returns their three starting linebackers in Max Bollough, Denicos Allen, and Chris Norman.  The reserves at each linebacking position are also game tested, giving Narduzzi excellent depth.  Denicos Allen and dinosaur defensive end William Gholston combined for 16 sacks last season.  Future NFL cornerback Johnny Adams also returns.

WHO WILL NOT: The unrecognizable wide receivers.  Michigan State is, fair to say, a talented and experienced team.  By the end of the year, the top five ball-catchers may be playing brilliant, polished ball.  For now, we at KRUI have to pick on a group.  Over 2,700 yards of catches are gone in Cunningham, Martin, Linthicum, and Nichol.

Running back Le’Veon Bell was the team’s third-leading reciever with 35 catches for 267 yards.  Bell will be the leading tailback this fall–like last season–so one can’t expect him to be the team’s main pass target.  Bennie Fowler may happily re-introduce himself as capable, but guys like Tony Lippett, Keith Mumphrey, and the Sims (tight end Dion and  receiver Andre, no relation) must rise to the occasion.  Though inexperienced, these youths have tremendous talent.

PREDICTIONS: Michigan State will know right away if it’s in decent shape.  The Spartans host Boise State on August 31st.  Boise State may not be the same super mid-major that they’ve been in the past few years, but Bronco head coach Chris Petersen is an elite leader.

The Legends division schedule for Sparty essentially comes down to a road game at Michigan.  Otherwise, State gets Iowa, Nebraska, and Northwestern at home.

A cross-over game at Wisconsin will be a challenge, but in this new split conference, divisional games are obviously of the highest importance.  Ten wins and another divisional championship seem realistic.

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Tomorrow at Kinnick Stadium, the Iowa Hawkeyes and Michigan State Spartans will duel for crucial positioning in the Legends division of the Big Ten–hoping to clear the air of a foggy and inconclusive race in their respective division.  The Spartans sit in considerably the best position in the division, having lost their first conference game two weeks ago at Nebraska.  With one divisional loss and no non-divisional losses, the Spartans (7-2 overall, 4-1 in conference) hold an armored upper hand on three teams behind them that boast a 3-2 conference record: Nebraska, Iowa, and Michigan.

After the 24-3 loss to the Cornhuskers on October 29th, it appeared that Big Red was in control.  They had only one loss in conference, a wretched but non-divisional 48-7 defeat at Wisconsin.  That all changed last Saturday when resurgent Northwestern won 28-25 at Memorial Stadium, stunning Husker fans and further muddying the Legends division race.

For Michigan State, the aim is simple: beat Iowa for some conference separation, go home to face the meek Indiana Hoosiers (the scare of Ohio State aside), and then finish the year at revived–albeit still defensively vulnerable–Northwestern.

For Iowa, the goal is to clench the figurative fist ’til knuckles turn white and hope to win every game.  That’s really the only way the Hawkeyes can make it to Indianapolis for the inaugural Big Ten title game.  That, and playing better than they have for most of the year.

After the agonizing and inexcusable loss to Minnesota, the Hawkeyes’ desperate, urgent quest to Indianapolis began with a showdown against Michigan last Saturday.  Like Indiana Jones in the final scenes of “Indiana Jones and The Last Crusade,” the Hawkeyes “got penitent,” dropping low in the trenches and dodging the beheading buzz saw of Michigan, winning 24-16.  Tomorrow, the Hawks must walk with tender foot over the fragile stones of Michigan State’s trap, spelling “V-I-C-T-O-R-Y” along the way.  Next, Iowa must take the “leap of faith,” winning their first road game of the season at flawed but dangerous Purdue, followed by their last test: winning at the unfamiliar house of Nebraska, Memorial Stadium.  If everything goes as planned and Iowa wins out, an ancient knight will greet the Hawks in the locker room and tell them, “You played wisely.”  You see, movies make us understand things better.  Pressing on.

Solving the Michigan State riddle will be no easy exam for Kirk Ferentz and his players.  The Michigan State defense, despite a few substandard games (that’s playing below their standards), still ranks among the elite within the landscape of all college teams.  The team ranks second in the nation in total defense, and leads the conference in passing defense.  Lead by giant tackle Jerel Worthy and end William Gholston, the Spartans are second in the conference in run defense.  They are eighth in the nation in scoring defense, allowing 16 points per game.

They will strive for victory despite a twofold challenge: winning at Kinnick and slowing some of the nation’s most elite offensive players.  The Spartans haven’t won at Kinnick Stadium since 1989 (they won, 17-14, and Iowa finished that year 5-6).  Last year at Kinnick, MSU crumpled 37-6 after entering the game 8-0.  Blame it on the pink toilets.  Iowa is 6-0 at home this year.  The pink toilets still remain.

Marcus Coker is averaging 122.3 yards per game, which leads the Big Ten and ranks sixth nationally.  He has the most rushing yards of all backs nationwide  since October 15th (647 yards).  James Vandenberg is second in the conference in passing yards (2,089) and touchdowns (18).  Wide receiver Marvin McNutt is twelfth in the nation in receiving yards (959, second in conference to A.J. Jenkins), and has six 100-yard receiving games this year, including three straight entering Saturday.  He is closing in on multiple career and single-season records at Iowa, including single-season receiving yards (1,037, Keith Chappelle), single-season touchdowns (has 9, needs 2 to tie record Maurice Brown set in ’02), and career receiving yards.  He already has the record for career touchdown receptions (25).

Before last Saturday’s 24-16 win over Michigan, Iowa’s defense had been a sieve of yards and a liability.  It shouldn’t even be mentioned in the same breath as Michigan State’s unit, but did hold Michigan well under its season averages in points, rushing yards, and total yards.  The Hawk defense also forced multiple turnovers.  Saturday, they will attempt to do the same to Spartan quarterback Kirk Cousins (1989 yards, 13 touchdowns, 5 interceptions).  Last year, Cousins threw 3 interceptions in the loss, with one being returned for a long touchdown.  On the ground, the Spartans are lead by Le’Veon Bell (528 yards, 8 touchdowns) and Edwin Baker (492 yards, 2 touchdowns).  B.J. Cunningham leads the team in receiving yards (51 receptions, 827 yards, 3 touchdowns).

Final Thoughts

If Iowa wants to win this game and move on to the next battle of what is essentially a playoff to the title game, the fans at Kinnick must be energized to the point of foaming-at-the-mouth delirium.  This is a big game, and must be treated as such.  Michigan State is 1-2 on the road this year.  Their one win came at Ohio State–an elite, rare win in a tough environment.  However, Ohio State was dealing with serious offensive ineptitude at the time, and MSU’s defensive prowess has diminished somewhat in the past few games.  Iowa is a different team at home behind a pro-Hawk crowd, and the Spartans–for whatever reason–have come up short at Kinnick for more than twenty years.  Expect a close game throughout (not a repeat of last year), with Cousins making a late-game mistake to give the Hawkeyes the win.

Iowa 27, MSU 23

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