In order to help out any fan that has questions about their bracket, or just help making sure you know what you’re talking about at the water cooler this week, we’ll have a region by region tournament breakdown starting with the east regional.

The Favorites

Villanova- Jay Wright’s Wildcats enter the tournament as the number one overall seed after a 30-3 season as both the Big East regular season and conference tournament champions. Villanova’s greatest strength entering the tournament is big game experience, as they returned three starters and two key bench contributors from last season’s national championship team. The biggest question that the Wildcats have faced entering the tournament in recent seasons is can they escape the first weekend of the tourney, having lost three consecutive second round games as a #1 or #2 seed. Jay Wright’s club put those questions to rest last year by winning the title, and they look poised to make another deep run led by the Big East conference player of the Year Josh Hart.

Duke-  The Blue Devils had one of the more uneven seasons in college basketball, as coach K missed a chunk of Conference play due to back surgery and their preseason all-American was constantly in the news for all of the wrong reasons. However since coach K returned to the bench in February, the offense has come alive. Shooting guard Luke Kennard has been handed a larger role and he has answered in a big way, scoring over 20 ppg while shooting just below 45 percent from behind the arc. Throw in the emergence of future lottery pick Jayson Tatum and a more level-headed Grayson Allen, and now we have a Duke team entering the tournament as a #2 seed after just beating three top twenty teams to win the ACC tournament. Simply put; the Blue Devils are dangerous.

Everyone is Talking About…

SMU- The Mustangs jumped on to the college basketball scene last season, but were ineligible for the NCAA tournament due to NCAA sanctions. This season, the Mustangs played like a team hungry to prove they belong, winning 26 of their last 27 games, their only loss coming on the road by two points to an impressive Cincinnati squad. As a #6 seed in the tournament, their biggest questions seem to be that they didn’t beat enough quality opponents (only 2 top 50 RPI wins, both against Cincinnati) and lack of depth, as they only use six players in their rotation. While their thin rotation is a valid concern, it’s worth pointing out that the six players they use are all really talented basketball players that can defend multiple positions and dominate in transition. Led by 6’7 Duke transfer Semi Ojeleye, the Mustangs are balanced offensively with five double digit scorers. Any team that is that difficult to guard is a tough match up in March.

Don’t be Fooled by…

Virginia- Virginia has quietly developed into an ACC powerhouse under Tony Bennet. The last three seasons the Cavaliers have been at least a #2 seed in the tournament, but have never gotten past the elite 8. While Virginia’s offensive style has become synonymous with BORING, you can’t argue that their barrage of halfcourt sets that consistently burn 25-30 seconds of clock isn’t effective and infuriating for opposing defenses.  Experience and discipline have made Virginia a hot pick to go as far as at least the sweet 16, but I’m not optimistic about their chances. The last three seasons Virginia has had NBA caliber wings in Justin Anderson and Malcolm Brogdon that could make plays if their sets broke down, this year their best playmaker is senior point guard London Perrantes. Perrantes doesn’t have nearly enough size or speed to separate from defenders off the dribble consistently enough to bail out the Cavaliers the way Brogdon or Anderson could. For that reason Virginia will probably need more than a few lucky breaks to advance past the first weekend.

If the Slipper Fits…

UNC Wilmington- The Colonial Athletic Association champs drew Virginia in the first round after winning 29 games this season. I just highlighted Virginia’s faults at length, and UNC Wilmington can exploit those faults if they can control the tempo. They are second in the country in turnover rate and 10th in the country in scoring, with four players averaging over 12 ppg. The numbers line up, UNC Wilmington has the best chance of any double digit seed in this region of pulling off an upset or two.

Five Players to Watch

SO PG Jalen Bronson, Villanova- Brunson is calm, cool and collected. He’s proven that no lights are too bright for him, expect him to bring his A game.

SR C Amile Jefferson, Duke- With Jayson Tatum playing more at the four, more has been asked out of Jefferson as rim protector. He’s responded nicely by averaging 1.7 blocks and over 8 rebounds a game, the Blue Devils need him to keep playing at high level down low.

JR F Johnathan Motley, Baylor- Motley is the leading man for the Bears, averaging nearly a double-double. His size and athleticism on both ends is a major reason that the #3 seed is as successful as they are in transition and with their press.

JR F Semi Ojeleye, SMU- With the Mustangs using such a small rotation, their legs will give quicker then the other contenders in the region. They need an all tournament type performance from Ojeleye to advance to Phoenix.

SR PG Bronson Koenig, Wisconsin- Many people were surprised to see the Badgers down at the #8 seed, but they shouldn’t be. They don’t have many offensive options, and most of their options are one dimensional. If the decorated senior wants to make one last run into late March, he has to be their go-to option, not Nigel Hayes.

Predictions

Despite their lack of numbers, SMU doesn’t lack talent. They should have no problem with a play-in game winner and they should be able to take advantage of Baylor’s major turnover issues with an efficient transition game. The #4 seed Florida might not have to play a team seeded lower than #12 in the first two rounds, which gives them an advantageous first weekend schedule that I expect them to take advantage of. However, the bottom line in this regional is that Duke and Villanova are so talented that its too hard for me to believe anyone is knocking them out before the elite eight. In what could possibly the most important game of the tournament, many are expecting the red hot Blue Devils to win the region. However, despite Duke’s offensive firepower, they are vulnerable defensively especially off the dribble. Brunson and Hart are so skilled and decisive off the dribble, and I think that will be enough to give the Wildcats the edge in this one considering how tough they are defensively. Villanova will be heading back to their second straight final four.

The post NCAA Tournament Breakdown:East Region appeared first on KRUI Radio.

CBS reviled the field of 68 Sunday afternoon, leading most college basketball fans around the country to fill out their brackets. Each fan hoping to win their work pool, or the much more unlikely option, having a perfect bracket.

The name of the tournament speaks for itself, the tournament is unpredictable. The odds to accurately predicting a flawless bracket are about 1 in 9.2 quintillion.

Even with such unpredictability, there are a couple themes stand true about who is likely to be making the trip to Glendale for the Final Four. Year after year, the tournament is complete madness but the road to the Final Four is more simple than it would seem.

Veteran Guards Win Championships

Over the last ten years the team that cuts down the nets features a star, usually veteran, guard. Half of the last ten years Final Four Most Outstanding Players were upperclassmen. Add the Russ Smith and Payton Siva from Louisville’s win in 2013 to the mix as well.

Last year, Villanova’s Ryan Arcidiacono led his team through the gantlet NCAA tournament to their first National Championships since 1985. Coach Jay Wright touted Arcidiacono’s leadership skills, even saying he was a mini version of himself.

Arcidiacono scored 16 points in the championship game but was highlighted by the assist to Kris Jenkins that led to the buzzer-beating shot. Graduating a year ago, Villanova will be without Arcidiacono.

Villanova, among others, features a veteran guard. One that can assist is leading their team through the NCAA tournament.

Josh Hart, a senior for Villanova, is averaging just over 18 points-per-game, leading the team to their number-one seed in East Regional. Not only will his experience in college help but playing on the biggest stage last year won’t hurt.

Hart, a shooting guard, is at the mercy of sophomore Jalen Brunson leading the offense. Brunson and others still are able to find their leader to put on the points for the Wildcats.

Two other veteran shooting guards on power-conference teams have the ability to lead their squad deep into the tournament. UCLA’s Bryce Alford and Duke’s Grayson Allen both have experience on the big stage, Allen won the national championship in 2015.

Alford is playing for his father, Steve, who won the national championship in 1987. Now head UCLA coach, Steve played guard in college as well.

UCLA’s guard play is among the best in the country, featuring Alford and super-star freshman Lonzo Ball. Between the two, UCLA leads all teams averaging over 90 points-per-game.

Midwest Region number-one Kansas also has a two headed monster. Senior Frank Mason III and junior Devonte’ Graham, who alternate at point-guard. As a result, Mason and Graham account for around a fourth of the team’s points.

Mason is among the nation’s top scorers and that is something that is unlikely to change once tournament play begins. He is averaging 20 points-per-game this season.

Conference rival and Big 12 champion Iowa State is a slightly less likely championship contender. Despite being a five-seed, the Cyclones senior Monte Morris holds similar qualities to the above named guards.

Morris leads Iowa State is scoring and has played a key role in the Cyclones peaking at the right time. Morris isn’t the only veteran guard, three of his teammates that rank second, third, and fourth in scoring are also senior guards.

While Iowa State might not be Villanova or Kansas, they could be a team to watch.

Some lower seeded teams aren’t necessarily looking to raise the trophy in Glendale. Their hopes are to win just a game. Having a guard with a hot hand makes that all the more possible.

Winthrop senior Keon Johnson is top-ten in Division I with over 22 point-per-game. His Winthrop Eagles are a 13-seed and will play Butler but that isn’t anything to stop a player shooting 40-percent from behind the arch.

Making over a fourth of Winthrop’s points, Johnson will be an under the radar senior guard to watch on the first weekend.

Don’t Underestimate Anyone

It’s easy to pick by the seeds, and chances are that will result in a solid bracket. Since 2010, 62-percent of top-four seeds have advanced on to the sweet-sixteen. Fairly good odds with as many upsets that due happen.

Each year there are a group of teams that shake up the field and make it further than anyone expected. Whether 15-seed Florida Gulf Coast advancing to the regionals or George Mason making the Final Four, crazy things happen.

Last year was Syracuse, and it very well could be again, that made the Final Four as a double-digit seed. Teams like Wichita State, Butler, and VCU have recently advanced to the final weekend.

Other times it’s an early round upset that busts a bracket. Most times those are harder to predict. Trying to selected a low-seed that will take down a perennial power, it isn’t easy.

Year after year it seems that a 12-seed will knock-off a 5-seed. In the last five years, multiple 5-seeds have fallen each year except 2015.

Often the 12-line corresponds with the bubble. The teams assigned a 12-seed are either the last of the at-large or the best of the small automatic bids. This year that line includes UNC-Wilmington, Nevada, Princeton, and Middle Tennessee.

All four of the 12-seeds will be dangerous in the second round. Each squad boasts a factor that cannot be ignored.

UNC-Wilmington ranks top-five in offensive efficiency. Nevada’s Marcus Marshall averages just under 20 points-per-game. Princeton enters the tournament on a 19 game winning streak. Middle Tennessee, one year removed from upsetting 2-seed Michigan State, returns nearly their entire roster from last years’ team.

Even though the seeds are high, the Big Ten schools tend to show up when it matters. Michigan sits on the seven-line and Wisconsin an eight-seed.

Major conference schools that feel they are seeded low will show two different outcomes. Some will roll over and others will go out with something to prove.

The Big Ten, as a conference, is seeded lower than in the past. In addition, the committee also left out three teams form the big dance: Illinois, Iowa, and Indiana. Watching how the Big Ten will respond could present an entertaining tournament.

When All Else Fails, Pick a One-Seed

A one-seed has never lost in the first round of the NCAA tournament. It’s been close recently, Arizona and Gonzaga both narrowly escaping with single digit wins. The closest a 16 has ever come is one point.

The field features three number-one-seed teams from major conferences and one from a small mid-major. Villanova, Kansas, and North Carolina out of power basketball conferences are the odds on favorites to head to Glendale. Gonzaga, the West Coast Conference champions, have the best record of any team in the tournament.

Villanova and Kansas could face intriguing matchups in the third round. 8-seed Wisconsin is one win from Villanova and 9-seed Michigan State the same distance from Kansas. Both teams played in the Final Four two years ago.

North Carolina, the one-seed in the South Regional, has been the third most talked about school of the region. Both ESPN and CBS thought higher of Kentucky and UCLA out of that bracket than the Tar Heels, despite their regular season ACC title.

Multiple teams, all seeded anywhere from one to three, could have been on the one-line. UCLA, Duke, Kentucky, and Oregon could all make a run at the Final Four.

Look for the high seeds to be strong, even with as crazy as the year has been. The one-seeds have history on their side.

The post What to Look for in March Madness appeared first on KRUI Radio.