The Favorites

Gonzaga- Don’t let their status as a mid major fool you, Gonzaga has been a giant for a while now. They’ve been a tournament regular for the last two decades and have made it to the sweet 16 the last two season, including an elite eight appearance in 2015. Now don’t get me wrong, Gonzaga’s conference is an absolute walk in the park, and they were a #1 seed just four seasons ago only to fall in the second round. Still, most consider this Gonzaga team to be their best one yet, and I would have to agree. The main reason why, which has been well documented, is their three major out of conference wins against top 20 opponents. Iowa State. Florida. Arizona. If Duke or Kentucky or even a program like Maryland had three wins like that in their first eight games, critics would be singing their praises from the mountain tops. Gonzaga has sustained enough recent success to deserve that same praise. The Zags are 13th in scoring, 10th in scoring defense, and have a plus 23.4 point differential. No one has beaten Gonzaga outside of a fortunate BYU team at the end of regular season play. The Bulldogs got back on track in their conference tourney and ended with an exclamation point against a quality Saint Mary’s squad. Don’t expect Gonzaga to be going home anytime soon.

Arizona- Maybe the hottest team in the country right now. They’ve lost only four games all season, all to teams that are a #4 seed or lower in the NCAA tournament, which gives them the strongest resume of losses in the country. But at the end of the day its about the games you win, and despite winning 27 total games and 16 out of 18 in the PAC 12, it seemed as if Arizona played the entire season in the shadows of UCLA and Oregon. That changed in dramatic fashion last week, as Arizona beat both the Bruins and the Ducks on back to back nights to capture the PAC 12 conference tournament title. What impressed the nation most during those two wins was the play of 7’0 Finnish freshman Lauri Markkanen who averages over 15 points and seven boards a game while shooting just under 50 percent including 43 percent from deep. Much like Gonzaga, Arizona is a serious force to be reckoned with.

Everyone is Talking About…

Notre Dame- The #5 seed seems a tad low for the Irish considering their strong 12-6 conference record in a loaded ACC, including seven total wins against NCAA tournament foes and a trip to the conference title game. The Irish seem to always fly under the radar, but their back to back elite eight trips might have forced teams to finally take notice. However, just because opponents have taken notice of ND doesn’t mean the Irish will go down any easier. They have four different players that average over 13ppg and they can score from inside and out. All conference power forward Bonzie Colson has led the Irish all year, averaging 17.5ppg and over 10 rebounds a contest. At only 6’5, he plays like he’s 6’9 and has wowed opposing players, coaches, and fans game in and game out. The biggest obstacle the Irish face, especially if they get to the sweet 16 and face Gonzaga, is they seldom play anyone over 6’8. Mike Brey has found ways to play around their lack of size all season, and Irish fans should be hopeful that he can continue to work small ball magic in the tournament.

Don’t be Fooled by…

Maryland- The Terrapins came out of the gates with an impressive 20-2 start and were the early favorites to win the Big Ten title. A deeper look at the numbers show that their hot start was just a smokescreen. Only two of their first 20 wins were against the RPI top 50 opponents, both came at home and neither team spent any time this season in the top 25. The Terps then unsurprisingly lost six of their last 10 and are limping into March. Outside of all-conference point guard Melo Trimble, Maryland doesn’t have another playmaker. A major theme in this tournament is the emergence of several talented underclassmen, but Maryland’s three freshman starters leave much to be desired. Guard Anthony Cowan provides Trimble some relief as a ball handler, Kevin Huerter helps spread the floor as a shooter, and Justin Jackson provides some inside out flexibility at the four. But none of the three, nor senior starting center Damonte Dodd, provide enough support on the offensive end to make them a serious threat. Melo Trimble might have enough heroics left in him for one more win before he presumably bolts for the draft, but Maryland’s ceiling is probably the second round.

If the Slipper Fits….

Xavier-  Maryland’s first round opponent has limped into the tournament very much in the same fashion as Maryland has, with one huge exception. Their starting point guard Edmond Summer returned from injury in the conference tournament and helped the Musketeers win a huge game against Butler, arguably their best win of the season. Unlike Maryland, Xavier has multiple scoring options as all three of their starting guards average over 14 ppg. Xavier was a promising team before Summer got hurt, and there is reason to be optimistic that they can catch lightning in a bottle this weekend with Summer back in the lineup.

Five Players to Watch 

SO SG Alonzo Trier, Arizona- Trier was suspended for the first 19 games of the season for a controversial failed drug test. In fifteen games this season he has led the Wildcats with 17.3 ppg while shooting over 41 percent from three. The presence of Trier in the lineup has many people believing the Wildcats can win the title

JR PG Nigel Williams-Goss, Gonzaga-  The Bulldogs’ leading scorer and assist man is also their most suffocating perimeter defender. Considering the vast amount of talented guards in this tournament, Williams-Goss is vital to Gonzaga’s chances of winning the title.

SO G/F Dwayne Bacon, Florida State- The leading scorer for the regional’s #3 see

d has all of the physical tools to excel at the next level, and he’s shown enough glimpses of that raw talent to help lead the Seminoles to an impressive 25 win season. However, he has yet to mesh all of his talents together to the point where the nation is convinced that Florida State is a real contender.

FR PF/C Jonathan Isaac, Florida State – See above.

SR SG  Steve Vasturia, Notre Dame- Yes, he’s only been playing for four years. I couldn’t believe it either. The decorated senior will be responsible for leading the Fighting Irish’s three point attack, which needs to be successful in order to make up for his team’s lack of size.

Predictions

I have been praising Notre Dame quite a bit, so it should come as no surprise that I believe they will come out and handle both Princeton and (presumably) West Virginia. The most potentially intriguing game in the regional could be Notre Dame and Gonzaga. Even though ND has gotten to the elite eight the last two years by beating teams they shouldn’t have, I have trouble believing that their most prolific player Bonzie Colson will be able to dominate the paint the way he normally does against the 7’3 Przemek Karnowski. On the bottom half of the bracket, I don’t think there is a lower seed with enough fire power to win two games, including Xavier. That would pin FSU against Arizona in the sweet 16. The duo of Bacon and Isaac likely isn’t enough to top the balanced and dangerous WIldcats, advantage Arizona.

Just like the east regional, I believe the top two seeds in the regional will face off against each other in the regional final. Even though Gonzaga beat Arizona on a neutral floor this season, that was without Alonzo Trier. With Trier being reinstated and Markkanen looking like an unstoppable force in the PAC 12 tournament, it’s hard to imagine anyone beating Arizona right now. Expect Arizona to match up against Villanova in the final four.

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Coming into this season, the “sophomore slump” question was on everyone’s mind for Johnny Manziel. He came out of nowhere last season and led Texas A&M to a 11-2 season, including a 41-13 dismantling of Oklahoma in the Cotton Bowl. He also managed to break SEC records set by Cam Newton and Tim Tebow, as a freshman mind you. But this year there seems to be a new “Johnny Football” over in Tallahassee. Another redshirt freshman quarterback named Jameis Winston has his Florida State Seminoles undefeated and currently ranked second in the nation and likely to compete for a national title. But regardless of a team’s record, the Heisman Trophy goes to the nation’s best player. And despite the losses and his off-field issues (which are minor compared to some other players) Johnny Football is still the best player in college football.

Numbers Don’t Lie

I realize that Winston and Baylor’s Bryce Petty are undefeated, and Oregon’s Marcus Mariota only has one loss. But Manziel is beating them in passing yards (3313), passing touchdowns (31), rushing yards (611), and completion percentage (73%). The part of his game that he is not leading in is rushing touchdowns and he still has more than Winston – the Heisman frontrunner. Yes he has more interceptions than any of these other contenders, but he also has almost 50 more passing attempts than the next closest player, Mariota.

No Heisman Moment? Try Every Game

I will give Winston credit that his “Heisman Moment” was going into Death Valley and dismantling then third ranked Clemson 51-14 on national television. His thumping of then number seven Miami 41-14 also helped his candidacy. But Manziel has played this way week in and week out. Last year he snuck up on some teams, but this year everyone knows what he is capable of. Johnny has a target on his back and he is still putting up these numbers. Even in his two losses his team scored 42 and 41 points. And in both of those games he had over 500 yards of total offense.

Records Should Not Be the Only Factor

I am not trying to take anything away from Winston, but if the Seminoles had a loss, he would not be the number one contender. To me, the Heisman Trophy shuld not only go to the nation’s most outstanding player, but to the player that makes the biggest difference on the team. It should be a player whose team would not be the same without him. Florida State’s defense is third best in the nation and only gives up an average of 11.1 points per game – Texas A&M not so much. The Aggies’ defense currently ranks 88^th in the nation and gives up 30.9 points per game. And A&M lost both of their games by a total of 11 points. The bottom line is that is Manziel had a defense close to the caliber that Winston has, he would be undefeated as well.

Put Attitude Aside and Base it Off Performance

Yes we all know about Manziel’s off-field issues. He is basically an average college student. I have heard people say he is a punk and a showboat, but you know what? He can do it. It is not really arrogance when he backs it up week after week. Manziel just got bad press for doing what every other college guy does. But put all the partying and money counting celebrations aside and base it off of his numbers and what he means to his team. If the people do that, it really is a clear choice.

Related articles

• What Johnny Football Needs to Do to Lock Up the Heisman in Death Valley
• It’s all about Johnny Heisman … again
• Heisman Watch 2013: What Each Contender Has Left to Prove

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