Four Years, Two Teams?

It may be to the point where these teams have faced each other so often that it is now considered a war by international law, but odds have it that the Warriors and Cavaliers will play each other in the NBA Finals once again. The argument remains as to whether or not the dominance of these two teams is good for the NBA, but anyway you put it this is the outcome for the 2017 season and maybe even a couple more years down the road. Buckle up NBA fans, this one may be a long ride. On another note the question remains, can anyone challenge either of these teams? No. At least not this year, and it is hard to see a new team emerging if both superpowers stay together this off-season.

Moves, Moves, and more Moves

There was a major shopping spree on players this off-season, as this it was one of the most active and exciting off-season’s that NBA fans have seen in a long time. Big names all seemed to move to and throughout the western conference. So much that it sparked the league to change the format of the All-Star game so that the West would not be so lopsided. One team in each conference stood out to me, as well as many other people, in making the most enticing moves this off-season.

In the east it was clearly the Celtics who had the best additions to their team. Adding Gordon Hayward through free agency and trading for Kyrie Irving were two great moves that helped the team get a lot younger and have a true identity to go along with the youth of their bench. There is still the aging Al Horford who does not fit the long-term plans of the team, but for right now he is good veteran help. This team is not going to stun the Cavaliers and take the eastern conference championship, but they should at least make the east finals competitive. The Celtics will be a force in the eastern conference for years to come, whether or not they do anything depends on the future of the Cavaliers roster.

As for the west the most intriguing team this off-season was the Oklahoma City Thunder with the additions of Paul George and Carmelo Anthony. The fact that both of these trades were pulled off is incredible, especially considering that Sam Presti technically flipped Serge Ibaka (traded to Magic for Victor Oladipo and Domantas Sabonis) for Paul George (Traded to Thunder for Victor Oladipo and Domantas Sabonis). This team now has a very interesting dynamic, as they have 3 guys that love to operate with the ball in their hands. Will they figure out a way to make it work? Yeah, I think they do but I do not think they reach a level that is higher for the Warriors. Sorry Thunder fans.

Lastly, some quick hitters regarding the rest of NBA and free agency moves. In the East everyone seemed to get worse and is entering rebuilding stages as the Bulls, Pacers, Hawks, and Knicks all traded away key pieces to get younger assets. All those stars migrated to the West where there were shuffles on most of the rosters. The Rockets propelled themselves into the top of the conference even further with the addition of Chris Paul. The Timberwolves made a big acquisition in getting Jimmy Butler, a move that they hope will help them in the long run as they have an extremely young roster. Lastly the Nuggets and Clippers both made additions that will likely keep them on the edge of the playoffs, but will not amount to major success in the West.

Graduating Class of 2017

Just about every team not mentioned above decided that it was a good move to invest in the draft, and it looks like the draft class is not going to disappoint. While it seems like the draft prospects have always busted in recent years, the rookies this year seem to be of a different breed. Going into the draft there were talks that this could be the best class since 2003, and from the little film we have seen in the summer league and preseason this looks more than formidable.

The number one overall pick by the 76ers Markelle Fultz not only looks like a stud, but so do his teammates around him. This is a team that has the potential to be really good in years to come if all of their young players tend to pan out how they should. While this pick was a no brainer for the 76ers, he is a perfect fit for their team as he provides the outside shooting needed to spread the floor.

The second overall pick went to the Los Angeles Lakers and they selected Lonzo Ball, as I am sure everyone on the planet knows by this point. Put his dad and all the drama aside and consensus has it that this kid is going to be a star. The pieces around him seem to be in place, but it is just a matter of how everyone progresses in the coming years. The interesting thing to follow with this roster is what happens next year in free agency, as the Lakers have a lot of money to spend and a lot of big name free agents should be available.

Some other noticeable draft picks were Jayson Tatum to the Celtics at three, Josh Jackson to the Suns at four, De’Aaron Fox to the Kings at five, and Dennis Smith Jr. to the Mavericks at nine. All of these players have potential to shine almost immediately in the league, and could very well be superstars in the making. Tatum is in a very interesting scenario as he is going to develop on a team that will likely get a lot of playoff success and experience. Jackson is on a young, but extremely talented team as he prepares to pair up with Devin Booker for years to come. Fox and Smith will not have any enticing prospects around them, but both are extremely explosive and quick players at the point guard position and should have long careers ahead of them.

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The Favorites

North Carolina- The Tar Heels are about as talented of a seven loss team as you’re going to find, and they are more than deserving of a #1 seed after winning the brutally competitive ACC regular season title. North Carolina accumulated ten wins this season against NCAA tournament opponents, and that didn’t happen by accident. The Tar Heels score a ridiculous 85 ppg by possessing multiple scoring options, with four players scoring over 12 points a contest. The defending national runner up has more experience than anyone else in the tournament, as all four of their double digit scorers are juniors or seniors. Led by 6’8 junior forward Justin Jackson, the Tar Heels have a relentless inside out offensive attack as they shoot over 36 percent as a team from three and they get to the free throw line over twenty two times a game. Another major advantage that the Tar Heels have is size and depth. Even though only one player on the team averages more 5.7 rebounds a game, they lead the nation in rebounding. North Carolina is a very well rounded team with no obvious holes, which makes them a very tough team to beat in this tournament.

Kentucky- Despite the Wildcats list of household recruits and numerous nationally televised prime time games, this Kentucky team seems to have less fan fair then they have in previous seasons. Some of that has to do with Calipari bringing in new faces every year before fans can become fully acquainted with the “older” ones, but I think it’s mostly because the SEC is generally the worst of the power five conferences and they struggle to draw the eyeballs of casual fans. Regardless of popularity this Kentucky team is, for lack of a better word, awesome. Just like North Carolina, they average over 85 ppg, they dominate the boards average about 40 rpg, and they have four players that average over 12 ppg. The biggest difference is North Carolina’s big guns are juniors and seniors with final four experience, Kentucky’s are freshman and sophomores with one foot already out the door awaiting the NBA. Calipari has taken a young group to the promise land before, and he has a chance to do it again this season.

UCLA- The Bruins are the most dangerous three seed in this entire tournament.  I talked about how explosive North Carolina and Kentucky are offensively, neither of them are quite as explosive as UCLA who leads the country at 90.4 ppg. The Bruins do it by sharing the basketball, as they also lead the country in assists and have six different players in double digits. Led by polarizing freshman phenom point guard Lonzo Ball, the Bruins have a nice mix of youth and experience that help them win 29 games this season. The Bruins don’t defend or rebound as well as UNC or Kentucky, so they will have to rely heavily on Lonzo Ball’s guidance of the offense if they want to advance to Phoenix.

 Everyone is Talking About…

Wichita State- The Shockers lost four year legends Fred Van Fleet and Rod Baker to graduation  this season, but they were still able to rattle off a 30 win season and both the regular season and conference tournament title in the Missouri Valley. However, despite being ranked in the top 20 in most polls they only received a #10 seed. The main reason they were seeded so low was they lack a good out of conference win while coming from a one bid league, but also they don’t have a notable, proven playmaker that convinced the committee that they can win big games. Despite their deficiencies on paper, the Shockers proved they can win on the court with a combined team effort. Nobody on the roster averages more than 11.8 ppg or 26.2 minutes, but they still averaged over 82 points a game while finishing 14th in the nation in total defense and fifth in the nation in rebounding. It will be a tall task for the Shockers to win more than one game in the tournament given their draw, but match ups won’t stop them from putting their best foot forward.

Don’t be Fooled by…

Cincinnati-  Mick Cronin and the Bearcats had an excellent 29-5 season out of the American Athletic Conference, and they were rewarded by the committee with a #6 seed. The Bearcats play absolutely swarming defense, as they finished 4th in the nation in defense. However, they failed to score 70 points on 13 different occasions this season. What is even more shocking to me than that stat is they are 30th in the country in assists but only 127th in the country in scoring. That stat tells me that Cincinnati doesn’t have nearly enough playmaking ability, which will probably cost them in the first round against a Kansas State team that just scored 95 points against Wake Forest.

If the Slipper Fits…

Middle Tennessee State- The Blue Raiders of Middle Tennessee State come in as the pick to click among #12 seeds this year after winning 30 games, including a blowout over Vanderbilt and nearly beating VCU. Their draw against the over seeded Minnesota Gophers is the most favorable draw of any #12 seed, and their top 3 players combine for 47.6 points a contest. MTSU vs Minnesota just screams 12 over 5 upset.

5 Players to Watch

FR PF TJ Leaf, UCLA- At just 19 years old, Leaf is already better than either of his older brothers ever were at UCLA. He’s ranked by ESPN’s Chad Ford as the 12th best NBA prospect in the world and he leads the highest scoring team in the nation in points per game. He’s extremely efficient, shooting 61 percent from the field and 45 percent from three. His consistency and efficiency are essential to UCLA’s success.

JR PG Joel Berry II, North Carolina- The biggest piece missing from North Carolina’s runner up finish from last season is point guard. In his first full season as the Tar Heels primary floor general, Berry has played very well averaging 14.8 ppg and shooting 42 percent from three. However, his assist to turnover ratio is slightly worse than 2-1. He will need to cut down the turnovers for UNC to be at their best.

FR PG De’Aaron Fox, Kentucky- Fox is just one of those athletes where statistics just don’t tell the whole story, you just need to see him play multiple times before truly grasping how special he is. While his game might not transfer well to the NBA because of his inability to shoot from the perimeter, he can be just as effective on any given night on the college level as potential opponent Lonzo Ball.

FR SG Malik Monk, Kentucky- Fox’s backcourt mate is the arguably the most dominant scorer in the country. He scores over 20 a game and shoots it over 40 percent from every spot on the floor. His 47 points in a December win against North Carolina was the most impressive individual performance in college basketball this season, and there is no reason he can’t put up performances like that in the biggest games of this tournament.

JR F Kelan Martin, Butler- The powerful forward leads the #4 seeded Butler in scoring at 16 a game, and he was the driving force a team that finished runner up in the deep Big East conference. This might be Butler’s best team in the post Brad Stevens era, but it is up to Martin to lead the Bulldogs against the regional’s top dogs.

Predictions

While I believe double digit seeded Wichita State, Kansas State, and Middle Tennessee State will pick up first round upsets, this is probably the one bracket where the top #4 seeds all advance to the sweet 16. The top four in this regional are just too darn good. While Butler handed #1 ranked Villanova two of their three losses, the Wildcats style of play is more comparable to Butler than North Carolina’s. The Tar Heels have too many athletes, they should be able to handle Butler without too much trouble. The UCLA vs Kentucky rematch will as fun as any game in the tournament, but I don’t think Lonzo Ball and company will be able to just outgun Kentucky. Kentucky is harder to defend now then they were in December, when they still put up 92 in a loss. Kentucky will get revenge in this matchup (sorry Lavar).

That leaves us with an elite eight rematch of a game that Kentucky won by a score of 103-100. While North Carolina is talented and has much more experience, the young Wildcats are very battle tested after playing out of conference games against North Carolina, UCLA, and Kansas. If there is a freshman duo capable of taking the down the ACC champion, it’s Fox and Monk. The Wildcats will be going back to their third final four in four years.

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